Leave.EU has continued to poll public opinion after our victory in the June 23 European Union membership referendum.
Our polling method consists of a high volume randomised sample and the use of sophisticated AI social media techniques developed in the United States by renowned public affairs firm Goddard Gunster.
The only poll we have publicly released was on the night of the EU referendum, shortly after polls closed. The model predicted a 52 to 48 outcome and was within 0.2% of the final result. Similar techniques have been used in the US where Donald Trump’s presidential election victory was accurately predicted.
Our latest UK poll provides an interesting insight into the national mood at the moment across England and Wales. We find support to be as follows:
These numbers are in line with national polls, the only variation being a strong upswing for the Liberal Democrats not detected by traditional polling companies. This could be due to Remain-backing Conservative and Labour supporters switching to Tim Farron’s party.
We have carried out a major polling exercise in advance of the Stoke by-election with a sample bigger than 4,000. Our results are as follows:
Key points we have taken away from this exercise include:
- Conservative supporters seem to be breaking towards UKIP;
- Labour are losing support to both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP (please note that in 2010 the Liberal Democrats came second in this seat with 22% of the vote);
- We estimate turnout to be 33%.