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Friday 14 September 2018

We received a tremendous response to last week’s letter from Leave.EU’s chairman. Blue Wave has struck a chord with the 17.4 million. Ensure to check out this Sky News item on our early success. Endorsing the campaign, Brexit warrior Andrew Bridgen slaps down the entryism accusations: “we’re delivering Brexit and we need to unite the right of centre. I wish the Ukippers had never left the Conservative Party, we were always going to be stronger together.”

Sound thinking from a true conservative. Party campaign headquarters are of a different mindset however, refusing to accept Blue Wave president Steven Woolfe’s membership application on Thursday, yet further proof of the disconnect between the Conservative Party leadership and its grassroots.

Today, the High Court ruled that the Electoral Commission misinterpreted the law when fining Vote Leave over its handling of expenses during the referendum. This is telling, as you can see from the images below, the commissioners are Remainers through and through, hellbent on ruining the reputation of the Leave side. They’ve finally come a cropper. Much deserved we say. Read more at Westmonster.

The week started promisingly, with Brexiteer Steve Baker warning around 80 MPs would vote Chequers down. The same day, Jacob Rees-Mogg fronted a paper by Economists for Free Trade predicting a £1.1 trillion boost to the UK economy in the event of an economic policy based on complete trade independence within the framework of the WTO. Not only would output go up considerably, but prices would fall by as much as 8%.

The next day, the European Research Group published a paper making a convincing case for a Canada-style deal with the EU. On the over-inflated Irish border question, the answer is simple: check goods away from the frontier, a solution pitched by the previous Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny, but ignored by his successor and by Brussels in order to trap Britain in the Customs Union.

Later that day, ERG members raised the stakes, openly discussing ways to maximize the chances of May’s removal. The media chose to focus on divisions within the Brexit camp rather than exposing the PM’s weakness. The moderates want to give May a scare, encouraging her to ditch Chequers with the threat of deposing her, without the real intent. The more realistic MPs want her out: dismissing May will bring an end to Chequers, provided a Leaver takes her place.

The Remainer establishment crowed over the division. Momentum then seemed to shift to their side after Jean-Claude Juncker told MEPs an “unprecedented deal” was in the offing, but warned, “If you leave the union, you are of course no longer part of our single market, and certainly not only in the parts of it you choose.” Under the Chequers, this is exactly what May is trying to achieve.

Next week, the EU27 leaders will meet for a special summit in Salzburg to figure out what kind of a deal Britain will be offered. They want an agreement wrapped up and their hands on the £39bn. The Salzburg meeting will not be about getting more concessions out of May (not yet) as part of a compromise agreement based around Chequers, but how to fudge a political accord that can get through the UK Parliament. From the EU’s perspective, the accord must keep open the possibility for Britain to remain in the Single Market when proper trade discussions commence after March 2019.

Juncker’s statement should have rallied Brexiteers in Westminster to push the credentials of a no deal. Unfortunately, the government took the initiative, with Dominic Raab co-opting the no deal scenario. The Brexit secretary first sought to provide reassurance with an op-ed in the Telegraph before unleashing a barrage of technical documents for businesses and consumers revealing how they will have to adapt to life outside the EU if we leave without any formal bilateral arrangements. The documents did not make for optimistic reading. Britain will be strangled with red tape, apparently.

The stage was the then set for BoE governor Mark Carney, who on Tuesday had his contract extended to 2022, to implement Project Fear 2.0 with laughable claims that in the event of a no-deal, house prices would fall by 35% as result of spiralling inflation and unemployment, together with limp economic growth.

Carney’s claims are unbelievable in the truest sense of the word, even more so after the disaster predicted by George Osborne’s treasury (it was Osborne who hired Carney) didn’t happen. Honestly, how stupid does Carney believe the public is?

As for the red tape threat, in the event talks towards a replacement trade agreement collapse, it is beyond doubt the EU will seek to make last minute arrangements with the UK for the landing of exports, data transfer and various licenses. Indeed, they are already being made over radioactive isotopes, a field of regulation more complex than any. Like Carney, Raab is guilty of presenting a distorted picture.

Furthermore, in focusing so much attention on the government’s role in managing economic life the media ignores that it is businesses, in choosing how to adapt, that will largely determine the outcome if we leave the EU without terms. The City of London is preparing for a no deal with only a fraction of jobs moving, the Civil Aviation Authority has assured pilots will not need to have their licenses re-issued, while mobile phone networks will not re-impose charges for calls in the EU. Whetherspoons is ditching EU-made beers and spirits.

As a nation we will make a success of Brexit, it’s time for the likes of May and Carney to wake up to that reality and move aside before they do any more damage. You can help us by supporting Blue Wave and joining the Conservative Party.