LEADING THE WAY OUT OF THE EU

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The doomsday warnings of immediate and catastrophic harm to the UK economy in the event of a Leave vote could hardly have proved to be less true. Initial wobbles in the stock markets were soon reversed, while the new value of sterling has boosted British exports and doom-laden predictions of a recession have been withdrawn. Not a week goes by without announcements of a forecast being upgraded, a new survey revealing high confidence amongst businesses and consumers alike, or of a major investment in the UK.

And the future looks even rosier. Access to major markets is expected to improve outside of the EU – the United States is already on board for an unprecedented trade deal – businesses of all sizes can expect more opportunities and less red-tape outside the EU. Most importantly, the UK economy remains fundamentally strong and competitive in the global marketplace.

LEAVE.EU INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS

ECONOMIC FORECASTS: THE FUTURE REWRITTEN

The so-called ‘experts’ were quick to put down the British economy and promote fear about the possible consequences of national independence. But in the months that followed, flawed predictions were exposed and forecasts were revised up. Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent admitted that ‘there’s little doubt that the economy has performed better than surveys suggested’ as the institution boosted its 2017 growth forecast to 2%, up from 0.8% in August 2016. The IMF revised their 1.1% estimate up to 1.5% too in January 2017, after helping Remain’s campaign of fear.

WHAT THE BUSINESSES SAY

The evidence from the private sector since June 2016 has been remarkable, with expansion across all the major sectors of the economy driving growth upwards in the final half of the year. Manufacturing was boosted by the more competitive value of sterling, with big expansion in the sector highlighted by a sequence of positive results in the Purchasing Managers’ Index. Similarly, services have been expanding since August and the construction sector, which struggled before the referendum, has enjoyed steady growth since September.

BUSINESSES STAYING, INVESTORS ARRIVING

Brexit offers an invaluable opportunity to clear out the regulatory baggage accumulated over the past four decades of EU membership and accordingly make British businesses more competitive and therefore more attractive prospects for investment. But aside from those future opportunities, the United Kingdom is already a hugely popular destination for foreign investment. The UK’s skills base, infrastructure, research capacity, legal system and level of government intervention are all at the top of global rankings. Added to that is the very likely prospect of Britain retaining preferential access to European markets.

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